Scientists have identified feedback loops that can create dramatic changes in climate.  For example, it is believed that at the close of an ice age 12,800 years ago, gradual warming on the North American continent melted a giant glacier that emptied into the Atlantic, creating enough change in ocean temperatures and current to cause rapid formation of northern ice sheets (Sachs, Common Wealth 79).  The albedo effect from these new sheets (reflection of sunlight that would otherwise be absorbed by darker water) accelerated further cooling and ice formation, lowering global temperatures by 5-10 degrees Fahrenheit over a few decades.  Today climate scientists fear that another feedback loop could push temperatures in the opposite direction.  Gradually warming temperatures from greenhouse gas emissions may melt enough northern tundra to release large amounts of methane, which would accelerate further warming.  As I listened this morning to an NPR story about converting a defunct RV factory to production of electric vehicles, it occurred to me that an accumulation of such advances could create an economic, political, and technological feedback loop analogous to climate feedback loops.  

Over the past several months, the gap between the climate science and popular opinion has grown.  Although there is virtual consensus among legitimate climate scientists that human activity is indeed warming the globe, a December, 2009 CNN poll indicated that only about a third of Americans believe that global warming is a proven fact, and the number who believe that people are causing climate change has dropped to 45%.  

The media has allowed climate change deniers to successfully frame the issue as a political difference between liberals and conservatives rather than clearly distinguishing questions of public policy from underlying scientific questions about whether there is a climate problem and, if so, what is causing it.  Recently, climate scientists have had to respond to a number of misconceptions and allegations that have been uncritically embraced and passed along the conservative blogosphere.  Jim Hansen, reporting on recent surface temperature analysis by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, has patiently explained why relatively short-term fluctuations in global temperature do not mean that we have entered a period of global cooling.  Members of IPCC working groups have patiently addressed false or misleading accusations of alarmist bias and distortion in the IPCC reports.  But rational explanation is not likely to win the day on the playing field of popular opinion.

It is as though 98 doctors have told us they are 90% certain that our children will be at grave risk without a particular vaccine.  Two doctors disagree and say that they are not nearly so certain that the vaccine is necessary.  However, the media widely reports that these points of view each deserve equal merit.   In response, only 40% of us agree to have our children vaccinated.  

Lester Brown, Al Gore, Jeffrey Sachs, Tom Friedman and a host of others have argued that we do have the technology and resources available to tackle climate change as well as a wide range of associated global problems – if we act quickly, decisively and collectively.  The major obstacle that we face is a failure of political will.  With an army of lobbyists, fossil fuel companies have mounted a successful campaign to distort the truth and block Congressional action.  It appears quite likely that America will remain focused on near-term economic woes and ignore the “alarmist” message from climate science.  It is difficult to see how we will gain the political momentum needed to create meaningful climate legislation.

But upon hearing this morning’s NPR story, I could imagine a feedback loop capable of creating meaningful change.  Elkhart, Indiana, previously dependent on RV manufacturing and suffering from a 15% unemployment rate, may be selected as a manufacturing center for Think all-electric vehicles, and many in Elkhart are excited by the prospect.  If the Think factory opens, and the facilities and skills previously used to sell gas-guzzling RV’s are used to manufacture next-generation electric vehicles, imagine the impact that will have on political attitudes in Elkhart.  What would happen to opinion polls in Elkhart on a tax on carbon, subsidies for clean energy, or cap and trade?   

An accumulation of similar transitions that create green jobs may nudge political opinion to the tipping point that leads Congress to place a price on carbon.  If that happens, it will create a feedback loop, accelerating investment needed to bring future green technologies to commercial scale, which will, in turn, create more green jobs and more political support for the green economy.